PF Jan 2018 - Catalonia Independence - Con Position

Resolved: Spain should grant Catalonia its independence.

Con Position

We seem to be living in a time of political uncertainty. A rise of populism is challenging the established order and forcing many to reexamine their ideas of political identity. Within the U.S., the traditional political establishment is being challenged by movements outside of the mainstream of political tradition. Some claim populist movements have resulted in the Brexit movement and similar political groundswells of populist activism in France, Italy and other international systems. However, while populism is characterized by concern for the common people, we are seeing something much more narrow. There is a rise in populist factions focused upon common people of distinct characteristics; those who speak a particular language, who hold to a certain set of religious views, or those who maintain certain traditions. Perhaps the driving force behind many of these movements is an underlying fear of loss of cultural identity. The ethnic and cultural identity of many nations is evolving daily. The obvious driving force behind the evolution is powered by huge economic disparities which create migrant movements and a vast array of unresolved conflicts which drive refugees out of their traditional homelands. But even more influential in my opinion, is the power of mass communications in the age of television and the Internet which pours over political and physical borders.

In many ways, the age-old Catalan independence movement may be a type of ongoing populist uprising seeking to maintain a unique cultural identity, which diminished for a time after the establishment of the Spanish constitution and the restoration of democracy following the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975. In fact, an overwhelming majority of Catalans supported the Spanish constitution which affirmed the indivisibility of Spain which essentially outlawed succession, but Catalonia was designated an autonomous community allowing it some measure of freedom in establishing its own government. Many claim the resurgence of the Catalonia independence movement came as a result of the global economic collapse of 2008 and is a reaction to austerity measures implemented by Madrid. Once the period of economic hardship passes, the desire for independence will diminish.

The Practical Issues

One of the arguments Con can put forward is the impracticality of independence for Catalonia. Because Catalonia is essentially an independent state within the nation of Spain, it is completely reliant upon the central government for its physical and economic survival in the modern world.

Henley 2017:

Catalonia has much of the paraphernalia of statehood: it has a flag, a parliament, its own police force and broadcast regulator, and it provides some of its own public services such as healthcare and education. But an independent Catalonia would need to establish its own central bank, inland revenue, air traffic control and defence force, all of which are currently run from Madrid – as are electricity and gas transportation and distribution. The region’s telephone networks are run by major Spanish and foreign operators and also regulated from Madrid. Its airports are 51% owned by the Spanish state, and its railway tracks and rolling stock are operated by the state. Catalonia’s government debt as a proportion of GDP has more than tripled since 2009, standing at €76.7bn at the end of June. Its low credit rating means it cannot borrow directly on financial markets so depends on loans from the Spanish state. Outside the EU, Catalonia would also have to establish its own border controls and customs service. The borders between Catalonia, Spain and France would become external borders of both the EU and the passport-free Schengen zone.

Currently, Catalonia is recognized as a leading economic zone in the EU, but a move to independence would immediately, put it outside of the eurozone.

Henley 2017:

An independent Catalonia would need to set up its own trading standards regulators and to start negotiating its own trade agreements. Unlike Britain, it is not a member of the World Trade Organisation, putting it at an instant disadvantage. Like British nationals, Catalans would lose their EU citizenship – but also their Spanish citizenship: if Madrid really plays it tough, they could conceivably find themselves having to apply for visas to visit not just the EU but also Spain. As Britain’s experience with Brexit shows, leaving the EU is not a straightforward process. An independent Catalonia, however, would face an altogether greater problem: it would also have to exit the eurozone, at least temporarily.

Is The Motive Independence?

The current Catalonian, pro-independence movement has managed to mobilize a sizable group of supporters willing to march and demonstrate for the Pro-Catalonia cause and indeed this visible mobilization is cited by organizers as evidence the pro-independence movement is supported by a majority of Catalans. Moreover, the use of referendums as a mechanism for gauging public opinion suggests there is an overwhelming support for Catalonia independence. But referendum ballots are a binary choice, in which people can only vote yes or no and so the ballot wording allows for no alternative views.

Mari-Klose & Molina 2017:

The second piece of evidence used by pro-independence supporters is the claim that 70-80 percent of Catalans supported a referendum in every survey conducted on the issue since 2012. This is indeed true. When asked a binary question, Catalans have overwhelmingly responded in the affirmative. But this too cannot be taken as clear proof that there is widespread support for the idea that a vote for independence is the best way to handle the conflict. What does the data really tell us? It confirms something we already know: People want a say in their future and, accordingly, tend to see referendums as a good thing. Support for referendums and popular initiatives on a wide variety of issues is growing across the Continent. Increasingly, citizens expect to play a greater role in government and are less likely to choose to defer to authority, studies show.

One thing the referendum shows, is Catalans desire a change in the status quo. However, the use of a referendum as an instrument for determining public opinion is often used as a tool to project the illusion of wide-spread support for the lessor of two-evils.

Cockburn 2017:

Referendums have a lot to answer for: no wonder divided governments, demagogues and dictators have such a fondness for them. They have the appearance of popular democracy and give the impression that important decisions are finally being made by reducing complex questions into an over-simple “yes” or “no”. They make public opinion easy to manipulate because what voters are being asked to assent to is most often wishful thinking and what they are opposing is a rag-bag of unrelated grievances. There are a great many unhappy and dissatisfied people in the three countries which have voted in referendums in the last 15 months, but no reason to suppose that their vote will make them happier or better off. As is so often in history, those who want to carry out radical or revolutionary change do not get anywhere without provoking an unreasonable and counter-productive overreaction by those who want to preserve the status quo. It should not have required much consideration for the Spanish government to realise that sending in the national police to try and fail to stop the referendum, while beating up ordinary people in front of television cameras, was the best way to win sympathy for the pro-independence side. Hailing the Catalan chief of police, Josep Lluis Trapero, before a judge in Madrid on suspicion of sedition against the state, is likewise guaranteed to do nothing but give legitimacy to those holding the referendum.

Thus a referendum is often a tool for opening sharp divisions of ground, which leaves many individuals thinking no middle ground is possible. Thus the referendum is an instrument wielded by the proponents of separation to make Catalans believe there are no other answers.

Mari-Klose & Molina 2017:

What this all boils down to is that Catalans — like citizens of other post-industrial countries — want to be consulted on their future. What it does not mean is that a referendum on secession from Spain is the only response to this desire for self-determination, as nationalists claim. Indeed, an independence referendum is particularly dangerous in a region like Catalonia. Referendums are not suited to divided societies. Places like Belgium and Northern Ireland, for example — where cleavages are based on entrenched ethnic, linguistic or religious divisions — hardly ever resort to them. And, when they do, the experience has been traumatic, both exposing and deepening sectarian hostility. Divided societies need powersharing strategies to defuse conflicts. Given the strong correlation between language and political preferences on the issue of Catalan independence, a referendum will become a divisive zero-sum mechanism, in which a small — and probably unstable — majority imposes its preferences in a manner not easily reversible.

Harms to Spanish Democracy

First and foremost, it is important to recognize that Spain is a legitimate government and member state of the European Union in good standing. Spain enjoys status as one of the largest economies in the EU functioning as a democratic state. The widely popular constitution of Spain is the supreme law of the land and the government of Spain upholds its duties as a legitimate government by enforcing the rule of law. Allowing a disgruntled minority to challenge the non-divisibility of the Spanish state would be a dereliction of its duties. Failure to do so could have dire consequences not only for Spain but any liberal democracy.

Blanco 2017:

It is bad enough that nationalist leaders have managed to normalise a disdain for the rules of our democratic, constitutional system. But what is worse is that they have managed to do it from within the very institutions of the system that they so scorn. To those who would constantly try to caricature Spain as being a nation of "low democratic quality", it is worth pointing to The Economist's Democracy Index, which in 2016 grouped Spain once again among "full democracies", akin to Germany or the United Kingdom.
The philosopher Karl Popper described democracy's strength not so much as "the rule of the people" as "the rule of law", the restraining of power through constitutions and institutions that acted on behalf of the people. This is the essence of liberal democracy, settled in a system of reciprocal checks and balances designed to guarantee individual rights and freedoms and avoid the abuse of power, whether tyranny or simply overstepping one's authority. Today in Catalonia we have a government presuming to be the only qualified judge of its own cause, deciding as they please which laws or judicial resolutions are applicable to them and their relatives, and which are not. If we were to accept this, it would also mean accepting, by extension, that everyone else in society has the same right, and could presumably take the law into their own hands. This would lead to nothing less than the wholesale destruction of the democratic state and the rule of law.

Spain supports a legal framework which permits revision and change when it is justified. So why do the leaders of the independence movement not direct their efforts to mounting legal challenges and changes within the internal framework already available to them? Perhaps, as some would argue, their initiative is not as popular as they would like the outside world to believe.

Blanco 2017:

Nevertheless, the fact that our constitution does not contain intangibility clauses means that it can be changed. Thus it is not true that the nationalists have no choice but to put Catalan institutions outside the law. They could try to achieve their political aim through a reform that introduced the right to secession in the Spanish Constitution. The problem is, they know that reform of our constitution, like that of any other, is a lengthy and expensive process that requires qualified parliamentary majorities, and that is precisely what the nationalists do not have. They do not even have a qualified majority in the Autonomous Parliament of Catalonia itself. It is worth remembering that the nationalists are launching their challenge when they do not have the support of even half of Catalans. They know that the timing and political circumstances are against them; according to all the opinion polls, support for independence, which reached its peak at the end of 2014, has only decreased since then, coinciding with an improvement in citizens' perceptions of the economy.

Given the influence of the economy on popular opinions of succession, what impact would succession have on the economy of Catalonia, which is one of the wealthiest regions of Spain? Prior to the October 4th referendum, companies were already reacting negatively to the prospect of Catalonian independence. 

Stratfor 2017:

Financial markets and companies are starting to worry about the economic consequences that would come if Catalonia declares independence. On Oct. 4, the shares of two Catalonia-headquartered banks, CaixaBank and Banco Sabadell, fell by more than 5 percent. The following day, Banco Sabadell's board of directors met to discuss the possibility of moving its legal seat out of Catalonia. In the meantime, drug company Oryzon announced on Oct. 4 a decision to relocate away from Catalonia, while telecommunications company Eurona announced on Oct. 5 that it, too, will move its headquarters from Barcelona to Madrid. (The company said the decision was made a year ago.) Several other businesses throughout Spain have said that they are also following events in the region closely and are considering various options for how to respond.

Pluralism Or The Siren's Call

Of course in some ways, the Spanish government's reaction to the referendums, including the confiscation of ballot boxes, arrest of leaders, and powerful police actions, are likely serving as a catalyst for the independence movement and tend to affirm the rationale for asserting independence and the need for complete autonomy. But astute observers note that the majority of Catalans are not necessarily seeking independence as much as a larger voice in keeping with their status as a core component of greater-Spain's success in the EU and more control over their own future. Thus the right of independence is really nothing more of an instrument for maintaining a cooperative relationship between Catalonia and the central government, perhaps a model of U.S. federalism.

Hunt 2017:

For the past two hundred years, however, the primary objective of Catalanism has not been separation from Spain, so much as the transformation of Spain from a centralized Castilian monarchy into a pluralistic “nation of nations.” In 1932, Francesc Macià, father of modern Catalanism and first president of the revived Generalitat, proclaimed a “Catalan Republic within the Iberian Federation,” though he had to accept a more restricted autonomy. His successor Lluís Companys (revered as Catalonia’s iconic martyr after being executed by Franco) called for a “Catalan State within the Spanish Federal Republic.” Puigdemont might well settle for something similar, eventually.
The critical issue for most Catalans is the right to decide, rather than independence per se. Many Catalans who were willing to risk jail to support the referendum would have voted against separation. The irony is that if the Spanish government were to permit a free expression of opinion, a majority of Catalans, having won the right to secede, would probably not feel the need to exercise it. They would, after all, have the weapon of secession at hand should they need it in the future, because the bond with Spain would have become a voluntary union of equals. Even for many independentistas the threat of secession is primarily a blunt instrument with which to get Spain’s attention. For them to admit as much in advance, however, would be to throw the match. A “right to decide” is only meaningful when it is wrested from the force that would deny it.

Despite the claims, most Catalans would choose to remain a Spanish autonomous community, we do well to remember the terrible toll levied against European populations as a result of nationalist movements claiming ethnic or cultural autonomy. Strong nationalist movements often spread strife and warfare across the continent and others stood to resist them. It is a terrible history, most Europeans do not want to repeat. Therefore, leaders are wary of nationalist movements and reluctant to support a move which could open a floodgate of divisive identity politics which could shatter European unity.

Hale 2017:

Catalonia’s recent independence referendum and outcome is a reminder of nationalism’s flawed promise: The myth of a swift divorce that is also apparent in Britain’s Brexit debâcle. Both cases give us several reasons to remain wary of the siren call of nationalism. First there’s its ugly side: the fact that the act of self-defining against the ‘other’ can start in the just-about-respectable area of national identity, only to slip down the scale into wholly unacceptable xenophobia and ethnocentrism. Two destructive wars started by the quest for ethnic nationhood in Europe hold lessons for how downright dangerous the slippery slope can be. In peacetime, it can be a sliding scale between supporting your country’s football team and engaging in the inter-group violence of hooliganism against your opponent. In Catalonia today, the nationalism of the Catalan leadership is pitted against the nationalism of the Madrid authorities, and there can be no clear winner.

For all these reasons and more, we urge a con ballot.

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Sources:


Blanco, NM (2017), The case against Catalan secession, Al-Jazeera, 1 Sept 2017. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/07/case-catalan-secession-170728105819426.html


Cockburn, P (2017) Why referendums – like with Brexit, Kurdistan and Catalonia – are always doomed to fail, 6 October 2017, The Independent, http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-catalonia-referendum-kurdish-independence-always-doomed-to-fail-a7986836.html


Hale, J (2017) Catalonia’s Nationalist Tragedy – and lessons for Brexit?, November 24, 2017, The Foreign Policy Centre. https://fpc.org.uk/catalonias-nationalist-tragedy-lessons-brexit/


Hunt, W (2017) The Ghost in The Ballot Box: Catalonia’s Crisis in Context, October 10, 2017, Dissent Magazine. https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/catalonia-independence-referendum-crisis-history-franco


MARÍ-KLOSE, P & MOLINA, I (2017), Catalans don’t want to secede, they want to be heard, Politico, 9/29/17, Updated 9/30/17, https://www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-referendum-independence-want-to-vote-not-secede/


Stratfor (2017) Spain: Companies in Catalonia Begin Weighing the Economic Pros and Cons, Oct 5, 2017, Stratfor Worldview. https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/spain-companies-catalonia-begin-weighing-economic-pros-and-cons